Maldives reserves plunge nearly 50 percent after March high amid rising deficit
4 އޯގަސްޓު 2026 | އަންގާރަ 08:25Maldives forecasts show GDP growth slowing to 5.3 percent by 2026 as the budget deficit expands to MVR 8.8 billion. While inflation eased to 2.6 percent, the economy faces rising government spending and seasonal fluctuations in tourism and fisheries. Trade remains imbalanced with high import costs despite steady private sector commercial loans.
The hands of a man holding Maldivian Rufiyaa notes, trading with another man outdoors. | Alamy
Official foreign reserves in the Maldives dropped sharply to USD 686.8 million at the end of June, down from a peak of USD 1.3 billion reached in March, based on statistics published by the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA).
The central bank’s figures reveal that the country's Real GDP growth, which was 6.2 percent in 2025, is forecasted to slow down to 5.3 percent in 2026.
Conversely, Nominal GDP is expected to increase to MVR 124,462.6 million in 2026, up from MVR 119,204.4 million recorded in 2025. In addition to this, the rate of inflation eased to 2.6 percent by June 2026 after standing at 4.0 percent in 2025.
An evaluation of tourism performance during the first six months of 2026 reveals that visitor arrivals reached a high of 248,000 in February. On average, visitors stayed for periods lasting between 7.1 and 7.7 days. Total tourist bed nights hit 1.4 million in January 2026 before undergoing a seasonal drop to 822,000 by June.
Concerning public finances, government spending reached MVR 44.3 billion in 2025 against total revenue and grants of MVR 37.9 billion, creating an overall fiscal deficit of MVR 6.4 billion. Moving into 2026, revenues are forecasted to grow to MVR 40.4 billion, but total spending is anticipated to climb even higher to MVR 49.2 billion. This trend generates an estimated budget deficit of MVR 8.8 billion, representing 7.1 percent of the country's GDP.
Across the banking system, Broad Money expanded to MVR 78.7 billion by June 2026. Out of this total money supply, net claims against the central government accounted for MVR 76.8 billion, while commercial loans provided to private entities reached MVR 46 billion.
International trade data for the initial half of 2026 indicates that monthly export totals varied from USD 30 million to USD 56 million. Local domestic exports accounted for USD 9.9 million of the total in June, while overall import expenditures for that same month mounted to USD 387.3 million.
Finally, within the fisheries industry, fish acquisitions peaked at 5,841 metric tons in April 2026 before falling significantly to 1,933 metric tons by the month of June.
