The projected Covid-19 surge can be detected through “surrogate indicators”.
While Dr. Ibrahim Afzal had previously said that the they cannot be certain if a surge has reached with the current testing capacity, the doctor on Thursday night stated that “there will be surrogate indicators” to show if the surge has hit.
Speaking at the National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC) Covid-19 press briefing, the doctor said that they are not just relying on cases identified through active surveillance.
“Even if cases are not captured through surveillance, if a surge has reached the numbers at flu clinics will increase, as well as SARI, as in those admitted at hospitals, will increase”Dr. Ibrahim Afzal
Hence, Dr. Afzal said that a surge in cases can be detected even with the current testing capacity. However, he said that he hopes that the capacity is increased “if surrogate indicators are seen”.
He also said that there is work to increase active surveillance.
Furthermore, Dr. Afzal stated that a lockdown “is one of the most effective measures to reduce a surge” and added this might one of the reasons that the surge has not reached.
He also noted they hope that the surge “will be low, if it reaches”.
As per the new Covid-19 projections, a surge in number of cases is projected towards the end of May with a peak expected on the 31st.
As such, the projections show 1,562 new cases being detected on peak day, and that at least 34 of the patients will be hospitalized while 12 are expected to require intensive care.
