Covid-19 projections in the Maldives has been significantly reduced following movement control measures, but could still overload the country's health system.
Dr. Sheena Moosa revealed the new projections at Thursday night’s Covid-19 press briefing at the National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC).
The Covid-19 curve is likely to peak at the end of May, with 1,600 new cases projected to be detected on the 31st if adequate tests are carried out.
Noting that previous projections showed peak case detection to reach over 6,000, Dr. Sheena said that this has been significantly reduced following movement restriction measures.
As such, she said that current projections show the detection of about 1,600 cases on peak day, but stressed that this is if adequate testing is carried out.
Noting that test rates “are low”, Dr. Sheena said that around 300 cases should be confirmed on May 7 and stressed that “reported numbers are not infection numbers”.
“Projections estimate number of infections within the community. Reported numbers are the amount that we are able to test due to our capacity”Dr. Sheena Moosa
While the projections show 1,562 infections on May 31, the doctor said that she will not call it a peak “but a surge compared to previous estimations”.
However, she stressed that the surge is not small “given the number of caseloads” and added that with the current testing capacity “about 400 cases” are likely to be identified on peak day. 34 are expected to be hospitalized on peak day, with 12 in need of intensive care.
Further, the doctor said that they estimate there to be 6,804 active cases in the country by May 31, with 281 hospitalized and 101 requiring intensive care.
As per the new projections, a total of 77,305 infections are to be confirmed in the Maldives, and 13,658 are estimated to be hospitalized with 5,805 patients requiring treatment at the intensive care unit.
Dr. Sheena noted that the new projections show the virus spreading among two groups; communal living infections where many individuals live together, and household infections.
The former is estimated to peak first, while household infections are projected to peak in July after communal living infections are controlled.
Dr. Sheena also emphasized that the surge could be reduced further if the public complies with the restriction measures imposed, and that if this is reduced “household infections will be lowered”.
