Maldives would have seen 10,891 Covid-19 deaths, over 98,000 cases without current measures

The Maldives is estimated to see a total of 98,501 Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) cases and 10,891 deaths had the government failed to take stringent restrictive measures against the pandemic.

This was revealed during the daily press briefing by the Covid-19 task force, where a report for the Maldives' projections in regard to the pandemic was publicized.

While the emergency response report is a compilation of estimations on how the infection would progress in the Maldives without any containment efforts by the relevant authorities, it is important to note that the government began taking measures as early as January.

The report revealed that the death toll would skyrocket to over 10,000 within the span of 37 days.

However, this total is expected to reduce significantly should the country go into a full lockdown, which will restrict the number of deaths to four.

Speaking during the press briefing, Dr. Nazla Rafeeq revealed that a total of 46,627 individuals will catch the virus in the capital Malé city region alone if a community spread is observed without any measures being taken.

While about 51,874 individuals are expected to test positive for the disease in outlying atolls, a total of 98,501 infections are expected across the country. If the relevant authorities do not implement restrictive measures to contain the spread of the disease, the number of infections are expected to snowball every day and reach a peak within just 47 days with cases per day reaching over 7,500.

However, if containment measures are put in place, this amount will be reduced significantly and the number of infections per day will be restricted to about 2,000, reaching peak at around the 105th day. Only 173 total infections are expected should the country go into a full lockdown.

The doctor revealed plans to further strengthen the measures currently in place to ensure that there is no community spread.

While several measures are required to be implemented to ensure community spread does not arise, heavily congested regions such as the capital are required more priority. Further, it is also important to note that restrictive measures are put in place and reduce overcrowding in local hospitals.

Dr. Nazla went on to reveal that a total of 13,000 individuals will be hospitalized if the virus spreads while adequate measures are not in place.

If stringent measures are implemented, only about 300 patients will require treatment at the hospital on a daily basis and those who require treatment at the Intensive Care Unit will also reduce to a 100 from 400.

The report also noted that those with the highest risk of being severely infected by the virus are those who suffer from co-morbid conditions, followed by the elderly and those who suffer from chronic illnesses. As such, the death rate of those suffering from co-morbid diseases is expected to rise to 36%, followed by the elderly at 35% and those suffering from chronic illnesses at 28%.

Further, the Maldives is expected to follow a containment strategy by avoiding the introduction of the disease, limiting the disease from spreading and preventing deaths by focusing on the capital city area as a high-risk region. This also includes avoiding overloading the healthcare system and preventing the system from failing.

According to the containment strategy, the surge in cases may also be delayed should there be a possibility of treatment and vaccination availability.